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Ÿ [Į] ο ͷ  ȵȴ١
޵ (e)
Է : 2018-09-17 17:53:37
Ϻ Ʈ Ȯ RSS
2000  ϶, äDZݸ ްϰ
ο ü ڻ꿡 äǺ 50% ϰ ־
۸޵ (e) ڣ

Ź ڹ


ֽ, ä Ʈ ڰ ϸ ø ߿ Ұ ( ) Ⱑ ż ŵ Ÿ̹֡(Ÿ Ÿ̹)̴.

, ڿ ϸ ߸ Ÿ̹ ſ̶ . ڵ鿡 ϸ Ʈ, Ư ̳ ο ݵ κ ڻ(ڻ ֽİ ä ں) 91.5% ȴٰ Ѵ.

ǥ 2017⵵ ο ݿ () , 5(2013~2017) ο ͷ 5.18% 97.7% 5.06% ڻ ȿ ⿩ǰ ִ.(1)

(1) ο ڻ꼱 ȿ 5.7%ε, ̰ Ϲڰ ȿ شѴ

ڷ: б⺸


2000 鼭, ް ϶ߴ. Ư äDZݸ 5% Ϸ 鼭 ݵ ڻп ־, äǺ ް ҽ״.

̷ ݵ äǺ 濡 ݰ ݸ Ͽ äڻ ̻ ͷ , ߻ ͷ ϴ ۿ ٴ ν ȯ ִ.

׷ ٸ ݵ üڻ 20~40%̳ äǺ ұϰ 츮 ο ü ڻп äǺ 50%(ä 47%) ̸ ִ.

ο ͷ 2~3% äڻ꿡 ü ڻ 50% ִٴ ǹ̴. ̷ ο äǺ 15Ⱓ ij ݿ ͷ 97% ϳ ū ̸ Ϻݿ ؼ ͷ ̴.

ڷ: б⺸



ζ
ֽڻ ڻ ƴ϶ ȸڻ̾

ο Ӹ ƴ϶ ⿡ ϴ , ¾ 25Ŀ ο ϰ ο ɽñ 2080 ִ.

, ο ϴ Ⱑ Ѵ ݵ̴. ̷ ڻ 뵵 1~2 ܱ⼺ ڻ ƴ϶ ⼺ ڻ̾ Ѵ.

߼ ϶ϰ ִ ȹ ų ִ ȣ δ. , äڻ ̻ ݵ ͷ ų ִ ٴ ڸ ̴.

׷ٸ, ̸ ü ֽڻ  .

ڷ: б⺸

ù° ݰ ݵ忡 ־ ֽڻ ڻ ƴ϶ ȸ ڻ̶ ̴.

̱ ֽĽ äǽ 90 ͷ ܱ 1 ڼͷ Ÿ ִ. 1927⸻, 100޷(ȭ) S&P 500 ä 10⿡ 90Ⱓ ϸ 2017⸻ ֽĿ 100޷ 4000(ȭ 40޷) ͷ, ä 10⿡ 73(ȭ 7300޷) ڼͷ ȴ.

1Ⱓ ܱ ڸ ϸ ֽ ؿ 52% ͷ ڸ ̳ʽ(-)44% ս ִ ݸ鿡, äǿ ϸ, 33% ͷ -11% ս ִ.

ֽڴ Դ 4⿬ ս ä 2⿬ ս 찡 ߻ߴ. ̷ ֽڻ äڻ꿡 ܱ ũ, ͷ äǴ ̾(2) ڻ̴.

(2) 90Ⱓ ڱⰣ S&P 500 ä 10⿡ 4.8% 5.8% ͷ ̾ ڻ̴.

ֽڻ ݵ ؾ

׷, ֽڻ 󸶳 Ⱓ ؾ սȮ 0% ϴ°?

ڷ: б⺸

̱ 90Ⱓ ֽİ ä ڱⰣ ͷ м ֽİ äǿ 1 ϸ, ȯ ͷ 9.6%, 4.9%̰, ս Ȯ 27%, 18%, ͷ (ǥ)(3) 19.5% 7.7%.

׷, ڱⰣ Ȯϸ ڻ ȯ ͷ ǰ ͷ Ѵ.

Ư ֽڴ ڱⰣ ȮԿ ͷ (ǥ) ް ҵǸ, ڱⰣ 15 Ѿ ս Ȯ 0%(4) ִ.

̴ ֽڻ ݰ ܱ⼺ ʴ ݵ ؾ ڻ̶ Ͻϴ ̴.

° ֽڴ ȿ ûٴ ̴.

츮 ϴ ڽ(KOSPI), S&P 500 ܼ ǥ .

׷ οݰ ݵ ų κ ޾ ̸ Ѵ. , ο ֽ ͷ 뷫 KOSPI ڽ(KOSDAQ)ͷ ų ޴ [KOSPIͷ 2%(5)] ؼ Ѵ. ְ 2-4%(6) ͷ ۾ Ⱓ ϸ Ƿ ͷ û.

1927 17.8 S&P 500 츮 ϴ S&P 500 ܼ δ 2018 9 2886(161), δ 76890(4300) ȴ. ̷ ȿ ڱⰣ Ŀ ۿ .

(3)Ϲ, ڿ ڻ ͷ ̶ Īϰ ͷ ǥ Ѵ.
(4)̷ ڽ սȮ 0% ϴ , Emerging 忡 Ҽ Ⱓ ª(лȿ).
(5) KOSPI 200 2018 ͷ 2.39%, ä 3 ͷ 1.92%
(6)S&P500 90Ⱓ ͷ 3.71%

̿ Ϻݵ ڱ ä Ⱦ ֽڻ ÷

ڷ: б⺸

ֽڻ ܱ ͷ ũ ϸ غ ְ, ȿ û.

̷ 븣, ij, CalPERs ܱ ͷ ʰ, ͷ ֽڻ äڻ ߺ ÷ ̴.

̿ ͷ Ϻ ڱä ȾƼ ֽڻ ÷ ̴.

Ϻδ ο äڻ ϴ ο ä ȸ, äǰ ū ϶ ̶ ã 쵵 ִ.

׷, Ϻݵ ڱ ߵ äڻ ٿ, ׷ ڻ ͷ ȹ ߴ. 1~2 ͷ ȴٰ ǴܵǸ ٷ ϴ ٶϴٰ Ѵ.

ο ݿ () 5ġ ϸ ؿ ٸ ݱ ͷ β ͷ ұϰ, ο ڻ ͷ 5Ⱓ ǥ(BM:Bench Mark)ͷ 0.75%(7)ʰ ޼ ȴ.

(7)0.75%ʰ κ üڻ̴. ׷ üڻ ׻ ġ(Fair Value)򰡿 ڻ̴.

γĸ ǥ ڻ ؾ

ǥͷ ǥڻп ǰ ǥڻ ݿȸ ͼӵ ִ.

׷ 20 忡 ̸ ݿȸ , .

ù° п ̴ּ е ̴ٴ ̰ ι° ڻ ͷ 迡 ϴ оߡ ٹ ãƺⰡ ٴ ̾.

° ο ͷ ߿ ġ ε ο ͷ ׵ ̸ ޵ ʴ´ٴ ̴.

忡 ǥͷ ǥͷ ޼ѵ ȸ  åӰ ? ϰ ȴ.

׵ ǥͷ ޼ ǥڻ ִٰ Ѵ. ο ͷ 츮 Ŀ 츮 ڼ İ ޷ ִ ߿ . , ο ݿȸ ̻ ǥ ͷ , 츮 ĸ ǥ ڻ ϱ .  
޵ (e) (editor@mdtoday.co.kr)
ũ 彺! ũ ڿܼ Ѵٰ?

Ŭ ϵTV


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